Global Democratic Decline Erases 47 Years of Progress
# Global Democratic Decline Erases 47 Years of Progress
For the average global citizen, the level of democracy has reverted to that of 1978. This is the central finding of the V-Dem 2026 Report, published by the V-Dem Institute at the University of Gothenburg, covering 179 countries up to the end of 2025. Entitled "Unraveling The Democratic Era?", this report documents a regression that almost erases all gains from the "third wave of democratization" initiated in 1974 with the Carnation Revolution in Portugal.
The figures are precise. By the end of 2025, the world will comprise 92 autocracies versus 87 democracies—this marks the second consecutive year that authoritarian regimes outnumber democratic ones. 74% of the world's population, or 6 billion people, live under autocratic regimes. Only 7% of the global population, or 0.6 billion people, reside in liberal democracies. A record 41% of the world's population lives in countries currently undergoing autocratization.
These data are not extrapolations or projections: they result from systematic coding conducted by over 4,200 researchers and country experts worldwide, who annually assess hundreds of institutional, electoral, and civil indicators in each country.
The Third Wave of Democratization: What Was Built and What Is Collapsing
The "third wave of democratization," theorized by Samuel Huntington in 1991, refers to the period of democratic expansion that began with the fall of military dictatorships in Southern Europe in the 1970s, accelerated with the end of the Cold War, and reached its peak in the early 2000s. In 2009, the world had 45 liberal democracies. By 2025, this number will have fallen to just 31.
This regression is not uniform. It affects very different regions, with distinct mechanisms. In South Asia, democracy erodes through the concentration of executive power and the subjugation of the media. In Latin America, through the personalization of power and the weakening of legislative checks and balances. In Central and Eastern Europe, through the capture of judicial and electoral institutions. In Sub-Saharan Africa, through military coups and the suspension of constitutions.
However, the novelty of the 2026 report lies elsewhere: for the first time in decades, democratic decline is also affecting established democracies in Western Europe and North America. The level of democracy in these regions is at its lowest in over 50 years, primarily due to the trajectory of the United States under the second Trump administration.
The number of closed autocracies—the most repressive regimes, lacking competitive elections or minimal civil liberties—has increased from 22 in 2019 to 35 in 2025. This 59% progression in six years indicates an intensification of repression within already authoritarian regimes, not merely a multiplication of new authoritarian regimes.
44 Countries Undergoing Autocratization, Including Historical Democracies
The report identifies 44 countries currently in a phase of autocratization—nearly a quarter of the world's nations. Among them are countries that had never been classified as autocratizing since the creation of the V-Dem index. The United States, Hungary, Turkey, India, Serbia, and Mexico are among the most documented cases.
The mechanisms of contemporary autocratization differ from those of classical coups d'état. In the majority of observed cases, the process is outwardly legal: it involves constitutional reforms, laws restricting civil society or the media, partisan appointments within judicial institutions, and rhetoric that delegitimizes the opposition as enemies of the people. V-Dem terms this phenomenon "autocratization by legalism."
Freedom of expression is the most affected aspect: it deteriorated in 44 countries by 2025. Media censorship is the most common tactic, employed in 73% of autocratizing countries. Torture to suppress political opposition is documented in 33 countries. Repression of civil society affects 68% of autocratizing countries.
These figures describe concrete realities: imprisoned journalists, dissolved non-governmental organizations, political opponents prosecuted on fabricated grounds, demonstrators dispersed by force. Autocratization is not an abstract phenomenon measured by indices—it has direct consequences for the lives of people living in these countries.
Legislative Constraints at Their Lowest Level in a Century
One indicator particularly draws the attention of V-Dem researchers: legislative constraints on the executive lost a third of their value by 2025, reaching their lowest level in over 100 years. This signifies that parliaments, in many countries, have ceased to play their role as a check on executive power.
This phenomenon is particularly pronounced in the United States, where the Republican-controlled Congress has, according to the report, "abdicated its constitutional role in favor of the executive by 2025, ceding significant legislative, fiscal, and oversight powers." Judicial constraints have also diminished, reaching their lowest level since 1900.
Civil rights and equality before the law are at their lowest levels in 60 years. Freedom of expression and the media follows the same trajectory. These indicators do not measure perceptions or opinions: they encode institutional facts—laws passed, courts reformed, journalists imprisoned, civil society organizations dissolved.
The measurement of legislative constraints is particularly revealing because it captures something fundamental in the definition of liberal democracy: the separation of powers. When a parliament ceases to control the executive, when courts cease to be independent, the democratic form may persist—elections are held, parties run—but the substance has evaporated.
Economic Impact: Democracy Measured by GDP
V-Dem introduces a rarely used measure in its 2026 report: the level of democracy weighted by GDP. This measure gives more weight to economically significant countries in the overall calculation. Result: measured by GDP, democracy is at its lowest level in over 50 years, following a persistent 25-year decline. The decline is over 36% from the 2000 peak, and it is accelerating.
This measure reflects a simple fact: the countries undergoing autocratization most rapidly—the United States, India, Turkey—are also among the world's most significant economies. Their trajectory weighs more heavily in the global balance than that of smaller countries.
The economic impact of autocratization is documented by other independent works: authoritarian regimes tend to reduce the independence of central banks, increase corruption, restrict capital mobility, and weaken property rights. In the medium term, these effects translate into reduced growth and foreign investment. A study published in The Journal of Political Economy in 2023 estimated that the transition to autocracy reduced GDP per capita by 3 to 5% over a decade.
Only 18 Countries Undergoing Democratization, Including 3 New Cases in 2025
The picture is not entirely bleak. V-Dem identifies 18 countries currently undergoing democratization. Among them, 3 new cases were identified in 2025. These positive dynamics are primarily concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia, where peaceful electoral transitions and institutional reforms have been documented.
However, the imbalance is striking: 44 countries undergoing autocratization for every 18 undergoing democratization. And democratizing countries are, on average, less populated and less economically influential than those autocratizing. The overall dynamic thus remains distinctly unfavorable to democracy.
Among the cases of democratization documented in 2025 are countries that have experienced transitions following major political crises, elections that ended authoritarian governments, or constitutional reforms that strengthened judicial independence. These cases show that democratization remains possible, even in an unfavorable global context.
What 47 Years of Progress Represented
To understand what the erasure of 47 years of democratic progress signifies, it is necessary to recall what these years produced. Between 1974 and 2009, dozens of countries abandoned military regimes or one-party rule to adopt democratic constitutions, competitive elections, independent judicial systems, and civil liberties. In Spain, Portugal, Greece, Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe, South Africa, South Korea, Taiwan—transitions that seemed irreversible.
The V-Dem 2026 report does not state that these transitions are nullified. It states that the levels of democratic quality—freedom of expression, judicial independence, civil rights, constraints on the executive—have receded to the point of returning to those that prevailed before these transitions produced their lasting effects.
This regression is gradual, not spectacular, and that is precisely what makes it difficult to counter. It does not occur through visible military coups, but through an accumulation of legal decisions that, taken in isolation, appear innocuous, yet together transform the nature of the regime.
Resistances: Civil Society, Local Elections, Judicial Checks and Balances
V-Dem also notes resistances. In several autocratizing countries, civil society continues to function, local elections remain competitive, and courts maintain their independence despite pressures. These resistances do not reverse the global trend, but they slow it down and maintain partial democratic spaces.
In the United States, the electoral components of democracy—the quality of elections themselves—remained relatively stable in 2025, with scores based on the 2024 elections, deemed free and fair by international observers. This is an important nuance: the American autocratization documented by V-Dem occurs through the weakening of institutions, not (yet) through direct electoral manipulation.
In Europe, several countries that had experienced episodes of autocratization—particularly in Central Europe—show signs of stabilization or slight improvement. Poland, after the 2023 elections that ended eight years of PiS government, has begun a partial restoration of judicial independence. These cases demonstrate that democratic regressions are not irreversible.
The question posed by the report's title—"Unraveling The Democratic Era?"—remains open. V-Dem does not predict the future. It documents a trajectory and identifies the mechanisms that produce it. The answer will depend, in part, on the capacity of civil societies, judicial institutions, and opposition parties to maintain effective checks and balances in the years to come.
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Main source: V-Dem Institute, Democracy Report 2026: Unraveling The Democratic Era?, University of Gothenburg, 2026.
